Demographia

1997 US Agricultural Census &
National Resources Inventory (NRI)
Discrepancies Outlined

On December 8, 1999, with a great deal of fanfare, Vice-President Gore announced the results of the Department of Agriculture National Resources Inventory, which he claimed indicated an acceleration in the loss of agricultural land to urban development. Texas and Pennsylvania were said to have lost more than two million and one million acres to development respectively.

A number of researchers questioned the credibility of these numbers. For one thing, the claimed loss of agricultural land was at considerable variance with the data published by the US Department of Agriculture Census covering the same 1992 to 1997 time period. For example, The Agricultural Census found that farm land was reduced over the period in Pennsylvania by 22,000 acres, while the NRI found a reduction of 900,000 acres. Even more out of line were the results in Texas, where the Agriculture Census had reported a 420,000 acre increase in agricultural land, while the NRI found a reduction of 2,100,000 acres.

The NRI data for the agricultural classifications of cropland, agricultural reserves, pasture land and range lands have historically tracked comparatively closely to the Census of Agriculture's farm land classification. At the national level, the NRI figure was within 0.3 percent in 1992, and within 0.2 percent in 1997. However, very significant differences are found in the 1997 state by state data.

The Census of Agriculture is an enumeration, while the NRI is based upon a sampling procedure.

Within the last month, the Department of Agriculture has withdrawn its data from the Internet and issued announcements that there were errors in the data. Corrected data is scheduled for release in June.

Wendell Cox, Demographia principal, and others had attempted to obtain clarification of these discrepancies soon after the December release, but no response was received.

This document contains the following tables:

1. Agricultural acreage in 1992 and 1997 based upon the Census of Agriculture.(enumeration)

2. Agricultural acreage in 1992 and 1997 as estimated by the National Resources Inventory (sampling)

3. Variances between the two.

4. State ranking of variances

5. Text of the April 19 National Resources Inventory announcement.


Agricultural Acreage by State (Census of Agriculture)

State AGCEN-1992 AGCEN-1997 AGCEN-CH % CHANGE
Alabama 8,450.8 8,704.4 253.6 3.0%
Arizona 35,037.6 26,866.7 (8,170.9) -23.3%
Arkansas 14,127.7 14,365.0 237.3 1.7%
California 28,979.0 27,698.8 (1,280.2) -4.4%
Colorado 33,983.0 32,634.2 (1,348.8) -4.0%
Connecticut 358.7 359.3 0.6 0.2%
Delaware 589.2 579.6 (9.6) -1.6%
Florida 10,766.1 10,454.2 (311.9) -2.9%
Georgia 10,025.6 10,671.2 645.6 6.4%
Hawaii 1,588.8 1,439.1 (149.7) -9.4%
Idaho 13,469.0 11,830.2 (1,638.8) -12.2%
Illinois 27,250.3 27,204.8 (45.5) -0.2%
Indiana 15,618.8 15,111.0 (507.8) -3.3%
Iowa 31,346.6 31,166.7 (179.9) -0.6%
Kansas 46,672.2 46,089.3 (582.9) -1.2%
Kentucky 13,665.8 13,334.2 (331.6) -2.4%
Louisiana 7,837.5 7,876.5 39.0 0.5%
Maine 1,258.3 1,211.6 (46.7) -3.7%
Maryland 2,223.5 2,154.9 (68.6) -3.1%
Massachusetts 526.4 518.3 (8.1) -1.5%
Michigan 10,088.2 9,872.8 (215.4) -2.1%
Minnesota 25,666.9 25,994.6 327.7 1.3%
Mississippi 10,188.4 10,124.8 (63.6) -0.6%
Missouri 28,546.9 28,826.2 279.3 1.0%
Montana 59,642.5 58,607.8 (1,034.7) -1.7%
Nebraska 44,393.1 45,525.4 1,132.3 2.6%
Nevada 9,263.7 6,409.3 (2,854.4) -30.8%
New Hampshire 385.9 415.0 29.1 7.5%
New Jersey 847.6 832.6 (15.0) -1.8%
New Mexico 46,849.3 45,787.1 (1,062.2) -2.3%
New York 7,458.0 7,254.5 (203.5) -2.7%
North Carolina 8,936.0 9,122.4 186.4 2.1%
North Dakota 39,438.1 39,359.3 (78.8) -0.2%
Ohio 14,248.0 14,103.1 (144.9) -1.0%
Oklahoma 32,143.0 33,218.7 1,075.7 3.3%
Oregon 17,609.5 17,449.3 (160.2) -0.9%
Pennsylvania 7,189.5 7,167.9 (21.6) -0.3%
Rhode Island 49.6 55.3 5.7 11.5%
South Carolina 4,472.6 4,593.5 120.9 2.7%
South Dakota 44,828.1 44,354.9 (473.2) -1.1%
Tennessee 11,169.1 11,122.4 (46.7) -0.4%
Texas 130,886.7 131,308.3 421.6 0.3%
Utah 9,624.5 12,024.7 2,400.2 24.9%
Vermont 1,278.5 1,262.1 (16.4) -1.3%
Virginia 8,297.0 8,228.2 (68.8) -0.8%
Washington 15,726.0 15,179.7 (546.3) -3.5%
West Virginia 3,267.2 3,455.5 188.3 5.8%
Wisconsin 15,463.6 14,900.2 (563.4) -3.6%
Wyoming 32,876.1 34,088.7 1,212.6 3.7%
United States 944,608.5 930,914.3 (13,694.2) -1.4%
Note: NRI data not gathered for Alaska
Source: United States Department of Agriculture


Agricultural Acreage by State (National Resources Inventory sampling)

State NRI-1992 NRI-1997 NRI-CHANGE % CHANGE
Alabama 7,519.9 7,035.8 (484.1) -6.4%
Arizona 33,674.8 33,385.2 (289.6) -0.9%
Arkansas 13,923.4 13,337.8 (585.6) -4.2%
California 28,722.9 28,255.6 (467.3) -1.6%
Colorado 35,973.1 35,873.8 (99.3) -0.3%
Connecticut 338.1 306.0 (32.1) -9.5%
Delaware 525.9 494.9 (31.0) -5.9%
Florida 11,234.9 10,208.2 (1,026.7) -9.1%
Georgia 8,831.9 8,109.8 (722.1) -8.2%
Hawaii 1,311.0 1,278.9 (32.1) -2.4%
Idaho 14,178.6 14,015.2 (163.4) -1.2%
Illinois 27,650.5 27,204.8 (445.7) -1.6%
Indiana 15,799.4 15,553.3 (246.1) -1.6%
Iowa 30,856.9 30,555.1 (301.8) -1.0%
Kansas 46,960.2 46,701.3 (258.9) -0.6%
Kentucky 11,442.4 11,095.2 (347.2) -3.0%
Louisiana 8,687.7 8,365.0 (322.7) -3.7%
Maine 589.4 530.5 (58.9) -10.0%
Maryland 2,244.0 2,070.7 (173.3) -7.7%
Massachusetts 445.7 385.0 (60.7) -13.6%
Michigan 11,639.3 10,764.6 (874.7) -7.5%
Minnesota 26,551.3 26,293.8 (257.5) -1.0%
Mississippi 10,535.9 9,792.9 (743.0) -7.1%
Missouri 27,081.1 26,360.8 (720.3) -2.7%
Montana 58,508.0 58,318.1 (189.9) -0.3%
Nebraska 45,622.1 45,504.9 (117.2) -0.3%
Nevada 9,299.6 9,283.5 (16.1) -0.2%
New Hampshire 239.8 223.1 (16.7) -7.0%
New Jersey 809.0 683.0 (126.0) -15.6%
New Mexico 43,319.9 42,792.3 (527.6) -1.2%
New York 8,708.2 8,055.7 (652.5) -7.5%
North Carolina 8,123.0 7,650.0 (473.0) -5.8%
North Dakota 39,628.1 39,448.7 (179.4) -0.5%
Ohio 14,579.4 13,806.9 (772.5) -5.3%
Oklahoma 33,180.5 32,753.1 (427.4) -1.3%
Oregon 16,075.3 15,743.3 (332.0) -2.1%
Pennsylvania 8,048.0 7,146.8 (901.2) -11.2%
Rhode Island 48.2 43.9 (4.3) -8.9%
South Carolina 4,460.6 3,986.5 (474.1) -10.6%
South Dakota 42,385.1 42,266.2 (118.9) -0.3%
Tennessee 10,569.8 9,925.6 (644.2) -6.1%
Texas 143,903.2 141,797.8 (2,105.4) -1.5%
Utah 13,535.5 13,307.6 (227.9) -1.7%
Vermont 983.8 943.7 (40.1) -4.1%
Virginia 6,317.1 6,020.3 (296.8) -4.7%
Washington 14,898.6 14,649.5 (249.1) -1.7%
West Virginia 2,516.1 2,350.7 (165.4) -6.6%
Wisconsin 14,454.1 14,081.5 (372.6) -2.6%
Wyoming 30,653.3 30,748.9 95.6 0.3%
United States 947,584.6 929,505.8 (18,078.8) -1.9%


NRI Variance from Census of Agriculture

State NRI-VARIANCE NRI-% VAR.
Alabama (737.7) -9.4%
Arizona 7,881.3 22.5%
Arkansas (822.9) -5.9%
California 812.9 2.8%
Colorado 1,249.5 3.7%
Connecticut (32.7) -9.7%
Delaware (21.4) -4.3%
Florida (714.8) -6.2%
Georgia (1,367.7) -14.6%
Hawaii 117.6 7.0%
Idaho 1,475.4 11.0%
Illinois (400.2) -1.4%
Indiana 261.7 1.7%
Iowa (121.9) -0.4%
Kansas 324.0 0.7%
Kentucky (15.6) -0.6%
Louisiana (361.7) -4.2%
Maine (12.2) -6.3%
Maryland (104.7) -4.6%
Massachusetts (52.6) -12.1%
Michigan (659.3) -5.4%
Minnesota (585.2) -2.2%
Mississippi (679.4) -6.4%
Missouri (999.6) -3.6%
Montana 844.8 1.4%
Nebraska (1,249.5) -2.8%
Nevada 2,838.3 30.6%
New Hampshire (45.8) -14.5%
New Jersey (111.0) -13.8%
New Mexico 534.6 1.0%
New York (449.0) -4.8%
North Carolina (659.4) -7.9%
North Dakota (100.6) -0.3%
Ohio (627.6) -4.3%
Oklahoma (1,503.1) -4.6%
Oregon (171.8) -1.2%
Pennsylvania (879.6) -10.9%
Rhode Island (10.0) -20.4%
South Carolina (595.0) -13.3%
South Dakota 354.3 0.8%
Tennessee (597.5) -5.7%
Texas (2,527.0) -1.8%
Utah (2,628.1) -26.6%
Vermont (23.7) -2.8%
Virginia (228.0) -3.9%
Washington 297.2 1.8%
West Virginia (353.7) -12.3%
Wisconsin 190.8 1.1%
Wyoming (1,117.0) -3.4%
United States (4,384.6) -0.5%


States Ranked NRI Variance from Census of Agriculture

Rank State NRI-VARIANCE NRI-% VAR.
1 Utah (2,628.1) -26.6%
2 Texas (2,527.0) -1.8%
3 Oklahoma (1,503.1) -4.6%
4 Georgia (1,367.7) -14.6%
5 Nebraska (1,249.5) -2.8%
6 Wyoming (1,117.0) -3.4%
7 Missouri (999.6) -3.6%
8 Pennsylvania (879.6) -10.9%
9 Arkansas (822.9) -5.9%
10 Alabama (737.7) -9.4%
11 Florida (714.8) -6.2%
12 Mississippi (679.4) -6.4%
13 North Carolina (659.4) -7.9%
14 Michigan (659.3) -5.4%
15 Ohio (627.6) -4.3%
16 Tennessee (597.5) -5.7%
17 South Carolina (595.0) -13.3%
18 Minnesota (585.2) -2.2%
19 New York (449.0) -4.8%
20 Illinois (400.2) -1.4%
21 Louisiana (361.7) -4.2%
22 West Virginia (353.7) -12.3%
23 Virginia (228.0) -3.9%
24 Oregon (171.8) -1.2%
25 Iowa (121.9) -0.4%
26 New Jersey (111.0) -13.8%
27 Maryland (104.7) -4.6%
28 North Dakota (100.6) -0.3%
29 Massachusetts (52.6) -12.1%
30 New Hampshire (45.8) -14.5%
31 Connecticut (32.7) -9.7%
32 Vermont (23.7) -2.8%
33 Delaware (21.4) -4.3%
34 Kentucky (15.6) -0.6%
35 Maine (12.2) -6.3%
36 Rhode Island (10.0) -20.4%
37 Hawaii 117.6 7.0%
38 Wisconsin 190.8 1.1%
39 Indiana 261.7 1.7%
40 Washington 297.2 1.8%
41 Kansas 324.0 0.7%
42 South Dakota 354.3 0.8%
43 New Mexico 534.6 1.0%
44 California 812.9 2.8%
45 Montana 844.8 1.4%
46 Colorado 1,249.5 3.7%
47 Idaho 1,475.4 11.0%
48 Nevada 2,838.3 30.6%
49 Arizona 7,881.3 22.5%
  United States (4,384.6) -0.5%

The following notice is posted at...

NOTICE:

[Wednesday, April 19, 2000]

The 1997 National Resources Inventory issued in December 1999 is currently being revised. NRI results announced in December 1999, which are available on this page, should be used only as preliminary data until revisions are complete.

The revisions will correct an error identified in Iowa State University's computer program used to process NRCS survey data from more than 800,000 sample points throughout the nation. The error will mainly affect results on the changes in land use.

Revised data will be available in June 2000 and will be posted on this page at that time.

For further information contact Warren Lee, Director, Resources Inventory Division, NRCS, (301) 504-2269.

Demographia is "pro-choice" with respect to urban development.
People should have the freedom to live and work where they like.

DEMOGRAPHIA
is an undertaking of
WENDELL COX CONSULTANCY
P. O. Box 841 - Belleville, IL 62222 USA
Telephone: +1.618.632.8507 - Facsimile: +1.618.632.8538

E-Mail: enquiries@demographia.com

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