Smart Growth & Housing Affordability:
Table of Contents
Paper Commissioned by the
Millennial Housing Commission
Wendell Cox Consultancy
(March 2002)

	Executive Summary	1
1	Introduction	12
1.1	Housing Assistance	13
2	Indicators of Housing Affordability	14
2.1	Household Income	14
2.2	Household Income Reporting Discrepancies	14
2.3	Home Ownership	18
2.4	House Values	20
2.5	Rents	22
2.6	Vacancies and Rental Housing Supply	25
2.7	Affordability Assessment	27
3	Barriers to Housing Affordability	28
3.1	Exclusionary Zoning	29
3.2	Smart Growth	30
3.21	Exclusionary Planning through Smart Growth	33
3.22	Exclusionary Planning: Development Rationing	33
3.23	Exclusionary Planning: Land Rationing	39
3.24	Smart Growth and Home Ownership	45
3.25	Smart Growth and the Cost of Living	46
3.26	Eligible Recipient Transportation: Situation	49
3.27	Eligible Recipient Transportation: Prospects	62
3.28	Smart Growth and Housing Assistance	72
3.29	Smart Growth and Housing Affordability: Assessment	73
4	Policy Options	77
APPENDICES
A	Immigration and Housing Affordability	79
B	Smart Growth: Arguments and Counter-Arguments	82
C	Alternative Views: Smart Growth and Housing Affordability	85
D	Urban Sprawl and Transport in Europe	88
E	Supplemental Tables	91
F	Low-Income Commuting By Transit	119
FIGURES
1	Income Related Estimates: Lowest Quintile: 1999	16
2	Urbanized Area Population per Square Mile	31
3	Change in Urban Density: 1960-1990	32
4	Per Unit Fees: Houses & Multi-Family By Region of California	35
5	Metropolitan Housing Affordability Ratio (NAHB): US & Portland	43
6	Median Income to House Value Ratio: United States & Oregon	43
7	International Traffic Volume Intensity	50
8	US Traffic Volume Intensity & Density	50
9	Relationship of Density & Traffic: US Subareas	51
10	Average Vehicle Hours per Square Mile	52
11	Air Pollution and Average Vehicle Speed	53
12	International Air Pollution Intensity: Nitrogen Oxide	53
13	International Air Pollution Intensity: Carbon Monoxide	54
14	International Air Pollution Intensity: VOC	54
15	Average Urban Density by Air Pollution Classification: US	55
16	Traffic and Mobile Source Air Pollution: 1970-1997	55
17	Average Size of Labor Market: US Urban Areas	67
18	Average Income of Commuters by Job Location	70
TABLES
ES-1	Findings	11
1	Households Eligible for Housing Assistance: 1999	13
2	Household Income: 1980-2000	14
3	Various Income Estimation Methods	18
4	Home Ownership Rates by Region	20
5	Home Ownership in Lowest Income Quintile	20
6	Home Ownership Rates by Ethnicity	20
7	Average Rents: 1990-2000	23
8	CPS Income Estimates and Rents: Lowest Income Quintile	24
9	BLS Income Estimates and Rents: Lowest Income Quintile	25
10	Vacancy Rates: 1990-2000	26
11	California Property Tax & State Aid and Proposition 13	34
12	Impact Fees in California by Region: Single Family Residences	35
13	Impact Fees in California by Region: Multiple Unit Residences	37
14	Impact Fees and House Prices: Chicago Suburbs	38
15	Housing Affordability in Oregon Metropolitan Areas	42
16	Urban Sprawl and Home Ownership	46
17	Urban Sprawl and Consumer Expenditures	47
18	US Average Journey to Work Data: Automobile and Transit	58
19	Share of Commutes Over One-Hour by Mode	58
20	Share of Transit Commutes by Duration	59
21	Density & Journey to Work Travel Times: US	59
22	Density & Journey to Work Travel Times: International	60
23	Journey to Work Travel Time: US & International	61
24	Low-Income Household Journey to Work	61
25	Theoretical Labor Market Size: Automobile and Transit	66
26	Automobile Availability: Lowest Income Quintile	68
A-1	Population Change and Immigration by State	80
C-1	Housing Markets and Economic Growth	86
C-2	Housing Markets and Population Growth	87
D-1	Comparison of Urban Sprawl: Paris and Chicago	89
E-1	House Values by State: 1990-2000	91
E-2	House Values Ranked: 2000	93
E-3	Change in House Values: 1990-2000	95
E-4	Median Income to House Value Ratio by State	97
E-5	Median Income to House Value Ratio: 2000 Rank	101
E-6	Median Income to House Value Ratio Ranked by Change	103
E-7	Metropolitan Housing Affordability: 1991-2001	106
E-8	Metropolitan Housing Affordability: Ranked	109
E-9	Metropolitan Housing Affordability: Ranked by Change	112
E-10	Rental Unit Vacancy Rate by State: 1990-2000	112
E-11	Rental Unit Vacancy Rate: Ranked by 2000 Vacancy Rate	114
E-12	Metropolitan Rental Unit Vacancy Rate: 1990 & 2000	116
E-13	Household Income: Transit Commuters by Work Location	118
F-1	Transit Access in Portland, Oregon	120