Urban Planning & Transport:
Portland & Denver Contrasted
Perception of Portland Superiority Mistaken

Portland is widely considered to be a success of urban development by advocates of so-called "smart growth." Consultants, planners and politicians around the world are proposing that Portland's model be followed. Smart growth proposals have been made in Denver, including a draconian land use measure that was rejected by state voters by a 70-30 margin in November 2000. The data shows that Portland's situation and trends are not generally superior to those of Denver.

Category Assessment
Background Denver and Portland are growing at virtually the same rate.
Urban Form Denver scores generally more favorably than Portland.
Roadways Indicators show similar performance
Public Transport Portland scores more favorably than Denver. However, public transit has a miniscule market share in both urban areas.
Income & Housing Indicators favor Denver. Portland housing affordability has dropped to a greater extent than any other major US urban area.

Item Indicator Denver Portland Portland Compared to Denver Superiority Based Upon Smart Growth Principals
100 BACKGROUND        
110 1999 Population: 1990 CMSA/MSA Definition 2,252,000 1,802,000 -20.0%  
115 1990 Population: 1990 CMSA/MSA Definition 1,848,000 1,478,000 -20.0%  
120 1980 Population: 1990 CMSA/MSA Definition 1,618,000 1,299,000 -19.7%  
125 Change in Population Since 1990 404,000 324,000 -19.8%  
130 Percentage Change in Population: 1990-1999 21.9% 21.9% 0.3%  
           
200 URBAN FORM        
210 FHWA Urbanized Area Population Density: 1997 (Population per Square Mile) 1,885 2,105 11.7% POR
215 Change in Urbanized Population Density: 1982-1997 16.0% -6.0% -137.5% DEN
220 Density of New Development 1982-1997 3,600 2,200 -38.9% DEN
225 Census Bureau Urbanized Area Density: 1990 3,307 3,021 -8.6%  
230 Census Bureau Urbanized Area Density: 1980 3,080 2,940 -4.5%  
235 Census Bureau Urbanized Area Density: 1990: Change from 1980 7.4% 2.8% -62.6% DEN
240 Most Dense 10% of Urbanized Area: 1990 12,321 11,784 -4.4% DEN
245 Most Dense 1% of Urbanized Area: 1990 7,587 7,322 -3.5% DEN
250 Central City Share of Growth Since 1990 7.9% 5.4% -30.8% DEN
255 Share of Employment in Central Business District 11.0% 11.3% 2.7% POR
           
300 ROADWAYS        
310 Roadway Congestion Index (Texas Transportation Institute): 1997 1.08 1.22 13.0% DEN
315 Roadway Congestion Index (Texas Transportation Institute): 1982 0.77 0.79 2.6%  
320 Change in Roadway Congestion Index (RCI) : 1982-1997 40.3% 54.4% 35.2% POR
325 RCI Change Adjusted for Population Increase 5.2% 16.4% 215.4% DEN
330 Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled per Square Mile: 1999 60,033 66,066 10.0% DEN
335 Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled per Person: 1999 23.2 23.2 0.0% EQUAL
340 Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled per Person: 1990 17.6 18.7 6.2%  
345 Change in Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled per Person: 1990-1999 31.8% 24.1% -24.4% POR
350 Freeway Equivalent Lane Miles per Square Mile: 1997 1.89 2.09 10.6% DEN
355 Freeway Equivalent Lane Miles per 1000 Population: 1997 1.00 0.78 -22.0% POR
           
400 PUBLIC TRANSPORT        
410 Overall Public Transport Market Share: 1997 1.37% 1.50% 9.6% POR
415 Estimated Traffic Reduction Attributable to Public Transit (Note) 0.41% 0.45% 9.6% POR
420 Urbanized Area Public Transport Ridership per Capita: 1997 39.4 58.4 48.3% POR
425 Urbanized Area Public Transport Passenger Miles per Capita: 1997 173.7 244.4 40.7% POR
430 Public Transport Work Trip Market Share: 1990 4.2% 5.4% 28.2% POR
435 Change in Public Transport Work Trip Market Share: 1980-1990 -30.9% -35.8% 15.9% DEN
440 Central Business District Public Transport Work Trip Market Share: 1990 16.7% 20.0% 19.8% POR
445 Public Transport Work Trip Market Share Outside Central Business District: 1990 1.7% 3.1% 82.4% POR
450 Miles of Urban Rail: 4th Quarter 1999 (All Opened 1979 or Later) 5.3 32.6 515.1% POR
455 Estimated Capital Spending on Rail System Opened at 4th Quarter 1999 $125 Million $1.3 Billion 940.0% POR
460 Daily Rail Ridership: 4th Quarter 1998 16,100 63,900 296.9% POR
465 Daily Rail Ridership per Mile: 4th Quarter 1998 3,038 1,960 -35.5% DEN
470 Average Rail Operating Speed (MPH) 10.7 14.2 32.7% POR
           
500 INCOME & HOUSING        
510 Change in Employment: 1990-1999 34.3% 30.5% -11.2% DEN
515 Change in Income per Household: 1991-2000 48.2% 37.7% -21.8% DEN
520 Change in Median House Price: 1991-2000 104.8% 102.5% -2.2% POR
525 Change in Housing Price Compared to Change in Income: 1991-2000 117.4% 171.9% 46.4% DEN
530 Change in Housing Opportunity Index (Housing Affordability): 1991-2000 -19.2% -51.8% -40.3% DEN
Data sources: Federal Highway Administration, National Transit Database, Texas Transportation Institute, American Public Transit Association, Bureau of Economic Analysis, US Census Bureau and Demographia.
Note: Item 415 assumes national transit rider automobile availability factor (0.3).

(c) 2001 www.demographia.com --- Wendell Cox Consultancy --- Permission granted to use with attribution.
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