Demographia

High-Income World:
Core Cities and Densification

For decades, virtually all urban growth in the high-income world has been in the suburbs, outside the historical core cities Nearly 96 percent of urban growth has been in the suburbs.. But even growth within the core cities can be suburban or non-densifying, if there is substantial undeveloped land within the city's boundaries or if there are annexations or municipal amalgamations. For example, much of the population growth in Rome, New York, Los Angeles and Nagoya can be attributed to development of open land within the city. Examples of cities growing due to amalgamation or annexation include Antwerp, Kitakyushu, Auckland, Portland and Milwaukee. For example, since 1950 Portland has annexed 110 percent more land than it occupied in 1950, yet has less than 50 percent more people. This analysis classifies the core cities that have achieved (at some point) 400,000 residents as follows:

1. Fully Developed: Densifying
Core cities that have substantially retained their 1950 boundaries, inside of which there has been little undeveloped land, and which are at their peak population. There is a single example, Vancouver, Canada.

2. Fully Developed: Not Densifying
Core cities that have substantially retained their 1950 boundaries, inside of which there has been little undeveloped land, and have lost population. There are 73 examples. (Some core cities are now growing again, but generally remain far below their peak populations). Overall, these cities have lost nearly 20 percent of their population, dropping from 88.0 million to 70.7 million.

3. Not Fully Developed: Population at Peak
Core cities that have expanded their boundaries since 1950 or have had substantial tracts of undeveloped land. For example, while New York is at its population peak, much of two boroughs (Queens and Richmond) had substantial amounts of undeveloped land in 1950. The three remaining boroughs, all of which were fully developed in 1950 remain below their population peaks.

4. Not Fully Developed: Population Falling
Core cities that have expanded their boundaries since 1950 or have had substantial tracts of undeveloped land and have lost population. For example, the US city of Milwaukee nearly doubled its area by annexation during the 1950s. Yet the latest estimates show its population to be below the pre-annexation 1950 figure.

    High-income world:
    Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Israel, New Zealand, Singapore United States, Western Europe (pre-2004 enlargement European Union, Norway, Switzerland and enclaves within that area).
SUMMARY    
Category Number %
     
1. Fully Developed: Densifying 1 1.4%
2. Fully Developed: Not Densifying 73 98.6%
Subtotal 74 100.0%
   
3. Not Fully Developed: At Peak 53  
4. Not Fully Developed: Losing 6  
Subtotal 59  
     
Total in Analysis 133  

DETAILED DATA

Category 1                
FULLY DEVELOPED: DENSIFYING            
At Peak Population (Latest Estimate)            
Nation City              
Canada Vancouver              
                 
Category 2                
FULLY DEVELOPED: NOT DENSIFYING          
Population has Declined from Peak            
Nation City Peak Year Peak Population Latest Estimate Latest Population Change Annual Rank (By Loss Rate)
Austria Vienna 1910 2,031,000 2001 1,550,000 -23.7% -0.30% 53
Canada Montreal 1971 1,214,000 2001 1,040,000 -14.3% -0.51% 37
Canada Toronto 1971 713,000 1996 653,000 -8.4% -0.35% 51
Denmark Kobenhavn 1950 768,000 1992 465,000 -39.5% -1.19% 6
France Lyon 1950 536,000 1999 422,000 -21.3% -0.49% 39
France Marseilles 1982 901,000 1999 798,000 -11.4% -0.71% 22
France Paris 1921 2,906,000 1999 2,125,000 -26.9% -0.40% 45
Germany Berlin 1939 4,339,000 2001 3,388,000 -21.9% -0.40% 46
Germany Bochum 1991 401,000 2001 390,000 -2.7% -0.28% 56
Germany Bremen 1971 606,000 2001 541,000 -10.7% -0.38% 48
Germany Dortmund 1961 652,000 2001 589,000 -9.7% -0.25% 60
Germany Dresden 1939 630,000 2001 479,000 -24.0% -0.44% 42
Germany Duisburg 1981 592,000 2001 512,000 -13.5% -0.72% 21
Germany Dusseldorf 1961 702,000 2001 571,000 -18.7% -0.52% 36
Germany Essen 1961 729,000 2001 592,000 -18.8% -0.52% 35
Germany Frankfurt 1961 688,000 2001 641,000 -6.8% -0.18% 64
Germany Hamburg 1961 1,841,000 2001 1,726,000 -6.2% -0.16% 65
Germany Hanover 1961 574,000 2001 516,000 -10.1% -0.27% 58
Germany Koln 1981 1,014,000 2001 968,000 -4.5% -0.23% 62
Germany Leipzig 1939 707,000 2001 493,000 -30.3% -0.58% 32
Germany Munchen 1981 1,315,000 2001 1,228,000 -6.6% -0.34% 52
Germany Nurnburg 1981 499,000 2001 491,000 -1.6% -0.08% 71
Germany Stuttgart 1981 649,000 2001 587,000 -9.6% -0.50% 38
Germany Wuppertal 1981 425,000 2001 365,000 -14.1% -0.76% 20
Greece Athens 1981 886,000 2001 746,000 -15.8% -0.86% 17
Ireland Dublin 1969 545,000 2002 496,000 -9.0% -0.29% 55
Italy Bologna 1971 487,000 2001 371,000 -23.8% -0.90% 14
Italy Firenze 1971 456,000 2001 356,000 -21.9% -0.82% 18
Italy Genova 1971 844,000 2001 610,000 -27.7% -1.08% 7
Italy Milano 1971 1,687,000 2001 1,256,000 -25.5% -0.98% 9
Italy Napoli 1971 1,267,000 2001 1,005,000 -20.7% -0.77% 19
Italy Palermo 1981 702,000 2001 687,000 -2.1% -0.11% 68
Italy Torino 1971 1,142,000 2001 865,000 -24.3% -0.92% 13
Japan Kitakyushu 1970 1,058,000 2000 1,026,000 -3.0% -0.10% 70
Japan Nagasaki 1975 450,000 2000 423,000 -6.0% -0.25% 61
Japan Osaka 1965 3,156,000 2000 2,599,000 -17.6% -0.55% 33
Japan Tokyo 1965 8,893,000 2000 8,130,000 -8.6% -0.26% 59
Netherlands Amsterdam 1961 868,000 2003 735,000 -15.3% -0.40% 47
Netherlands Hague 1960 605,000 2003 464,000 -23.3% -0.62% 30
Netherlands Rotterdam 1961 731,000 2003 599,000 -18.1% -0.47% 41
Portugal Lisboa 1961 818,000 2001 557,000 -31.9% -0.96% 10
Spain Barcelona 1971 1,828,000 2001 1,504,000 -17.7% -0.65% 26
Spain Bilbao 1970 410,000 1998 358,467 -12.6% -0.48% 40
Spain Madrid 1981 3,159,000 2001 2,939,000 -7.0% -0.36% 49
Sweden Stockholm 1960 808,000 2002 758,000 -6.2% -0.15% 66
Switzerland Zurich 1960 428,200 2002 343,000 -19.9% -0.53% 34
UK Belfast 1951 444,000 1991 295,000 -33.6% -1.02% 8
UK Birmingham 1951 1,113,000 2001 971,000 -12.8% -0.27% 57
UK Bristol 1951 444,000 2001 421,000 -5.2% -0.11% 69
UK Edinburgh 1951 475,000 2001 449,000 -5.5% -0.11% 67
UK Glasgow 1931 1,088,000 2001 579,000 -46.8% -0.90% 15
UK Leeds 1961 511,000 2001 443,000 -13.3% -0.36% 50
UK Liverpool 1931 857,000 2001 439,000 -48.8% -0.95% 11
UK London 1939 8,615,000 2001 7,172,000 -16.7% -0.30% 54
UK Manchester 1931 766,000 2001 393,000 -48.7% -0.95% 12
UK Sheffield 1981 558,000 2001 513,000 -8.1% -0.42% 44
US Baltimore 1950 950,000 2003 651,000 -31.5% -0.71% 23
US Boston 1950 801,000 2003 582,000 -27.3% -0.60% 31
US Buffalo 1950 580,000 2003 285,000 -50.9% -1.33% 3
US Chicago 1950 3,621,000 2003 2,869,000 -20.8% -0.44% 43
US Cincinnati 1950 504,000 2003 317,000 -37.1% -0.87% 16
US Cleveland 1950 915,000 2003 461,000 -49.6% -1.29% 5
US Detroit 1950 1,850,000 2003 911,000 -50.8% -1.33% 4
US Minneapolis 1950 522,000 2003 373,000 -28.5% -0.63% 29
US New Orleans 1960 628,000 2003 469,000 -25.3% -0.68% 24
US Newark 1930 442,000 2003 278,000 -37.1% -0.63% 28
US Philadelphia 1950 2,072,000 2003 1,479,000 -28.6% -0.63% 27
US Pittsburgh 1950 677,000 2003 325,000 -52.0% -1.38% 2
US San Francisco 1950 775,000 2003 752,000 -3.0% -0.06% 72
US St. Louis 1950 857,000 2003 332,000 -61.3% -1.77% 1
US Washington 1950 802,000 2003 563,000 -29.8% -0.67% 25
US San Juan, PR 1970 463,000 2002 433,000 -6.5% -0.21% 63
Total     87,990,200   70,712,467 -19.6% -0.53%  
                 
Category 3                
NOT FULLY DEVELOPED              
At Peak Population (Latest Estimate)            
Nation City              
Australia Brisbane              
Canada Calgary              
Canada Edmonton              
Canada Hamilton              
Canada Ottawa              
Canada Winnipeg              
Finland Helsinki              
Japan Fukuoka              
Japan Hamamatsu              
Japan Hiroshima              
Japan Kagoshima              
Japan Kanazawa              
Japan Kobe              
Japan Okayama              
Japan Shizuoka              
Japan Kumamoto              
Japan Kyoto              
Japan Matsuyama              
Japan Nagoya              
Japan Niigata              
Japan Oita              
Japan Sapporo              
Japan Sendai              
Japan Utsonomiya              
New Zealand Auckland              
Norway Oslo              
Singapore Singapore              
Spain Malaga              
Spain Seville              
Spain Zaragoza              
Sweden Goteborg              
US Albuquerque              
US Austin              
US Charlotte              
US Columbus              
US Dallas              
US Denver              
US El Paso              
US Fresno              
US Houston              
US Indianapolis              
US Jacksonville              
US Las Vegas              
US Los Angeles              
US Nashville              
US New York              
US Oklahoma City              
US Omaha              
US Portland              
US Sacramento              
US San Antonio              
US Seattle              
US Tucson              
                 
Category 4                
NOT FULLY DEVELOPED              
Population has Declined from Peak            
Nation City              
Belgium Antwerp              
Italy Roma              
Spain Valencia              
US Kansas City              
US Memphis              
US Milwaukee              
                 
Notes                
Data for Tokyo is for city abolished i 1945            
Data for Toronto is for pre-amalgamation city (1997)          
Chicago annexation for O'Hare Airport not considered substantial for the purposes of densification    

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